Margin practices and requirements during the National Banking Era: An early example of macro‐prudential regulation

The New York stock market was plagued by a series of financial crises during the National Banking Era, culminating in the Panic of 1907. The traditional view holds that the crises were rooted in structural flaws related to trade settlement as well as excessive and indiscriminate margin lending that remained unaddressed until the formation of the Federal Reserve Bank. An examination of the historical record, however, shows that brokers sought to control contagion and spillover effects through reform of the settlement process and by modulating margin lending rates and maintenance requirements according to macroeconomic conditions, counterparty credit‐worthiness and market volatility. Using newly gathered archival data, we show that the New York Stock Exchange enacted macro‐prudential regulations that may have reduced the severity of crises during this period. By providing early evidence of private sector responses to rising systemic risk, the paper addresses an important aspect of early market microstructure.     

Financial comparisons of under‐vine management systems in four South Australian vineyard districts*

Conventional viticultural practice in Australia and elsewhere involves removal of under‐vine vegetation using herbicides or cultivation. Concerns over the long‐term effects of herbicides on soil health, evolution of resistant weeds and possible impacts on human health motivate the search for alternative weed management options. Industry‐supported trials on commercial vineyards in four South Australian regions investigated standard practices of straw mulch and bare earth created with herbicides, compared to under‐vine cover crops, focusing on soil health attributes (soil carbon, soil microbiological processes, etc.) and grape yields in 2016 and 2017. Measured yields with the Control (herbicide) treatment were combined with published district grape prices and yields over the 12‐year (2006–2017) period, defining multivariate distributions of gross revenues ($/ha). Assuming all treatments produce grapes of equal quality and price as the Control, our results showed median per‐hectare gross margins greater than the Control in the Barossa district, lower than Control in Riverland, and mixed results in Langhorne Creek and Eden Valley. Multi‐year risk profiles, based on decadal whole‐farm (50 ha) cash flows for each treatment, were calculated using Monte Carlo analysis, based on historical yield and price distributions. These risk profiles showed the under‐vine treatments may result in major differences in long‐term vineyard financial viability.     

Contractual frictions and margins of trade

A recent body of work has shown that quality of national institutions that enforce written contracts plays an important role in shaping a country’s comparative advantage. The current paper contributes to this literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of the mechanisms through which institutional frictions affect the pattern of aggregate trade flow by distinguishing its effect on the intensive and extensive margins. We find that better contracting institutions not only increase the probability of exporting (the extensive margin) but also enhance the export sales after entry (the intensive margin), particularly in industries where relationship-specific investments are most important. With around two-third to three-fourth share (depending on the definition used), the contribution of institutions along the intensive margin dominates that along the extensive margin. The benefits of improved institutions, particularly via the intensive margin, favor the less developed countries over the more developed ones. In addition, better contracting institutions increase the probability of survival of export products in more contract-intensive industries in particular. These findings are robust to measuring the intensive and extensive margins using a more granular export data based on firm-level aggregates, as well as the variety and destination based definitions.     

Financial Development and the Social Cost of Financial Intermediation in Africa

This article investigates the effect of financial development on the social costs of financial intermediation across a large number of banks in Africa. The study distinguishes between countries that are financially developed and those that are not financially developed to examine the impact of financial development on the social costs of financial intermediation. A sample of 260 banks from 29 countries in Africa is used over an 8-year period from 2006 to 2013. We employ both Random Effect and GMM techniques to resolve the issues of unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity. We observe that overall, financial development reduces the social costs of intermediation. We also determine that the social costs of intermediation are lower for countries that have more developed financial systems compared to those with less developed financial systems. Our study is useful because it suggests that if countries want to reduce their social costs of intermediation, they should develop their financial systems.     

The impact of trading restrictions and margin requirements on stock index futures

Stock index futures in Chinese market have consistently diverged from their theoretical values. In this paper, we try to provide some explanations by proposing an equilibrium model. Although the model itself does not provide analytical solutions, it enables us to conduct extensive numerical studies and compare them with our empirical results on two major Chinese market indices, CSI300 and SSE50. Our results show that the divergence of stock index futures prices from their theoretical values may be due to various trading and regulatory constraints, such as position limits and margin requirements, which play significant roles in Chinese market.     

贸易便利化对中国企业出口二元边际的影响

本文采用中国海关数据库和OECD编制的TFIs指数,从出口企业-目的地层面分析了出口目的地贸易便利化对中国企业出口二元边际的影响。研究显示:目的地贸易便利化的提升对中国企业出口额增长有显著的促进作用,但企业的出口增长是通过缩小出口产品种类数(扩展边际)、扩大产品平均出口额(集约边际)实现的。拓展分析表明:随着目的地贸易便利化水平的提升,小企业和加工贸易企业会更多地缩小出口产品种类;低收入经济体贸易便利化提升对中国企业出口扩展边际的消极影响更大。据此,企业应专业化、规模化地生产有比较优势的产品,不断提升自身生产率,积极应对贸易便利化带来的机遇和挑战。     

A global analysis of factors impacting the intensive and extensive margins of bilateral foreign direct investment

This study investigates determinants of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) on both margins, the extensive margin (whether to invest) and the intensive margin (how much to invest), based on the recent structural gravity model for FDI developed by Anderson et al. (Trade and investment in the global economy. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 2017). I examine a global data set comprised of 110 countries over 9 years, 2004–12. Apart from conventional gravity variables, the source country's technology capital shows a significant and positive impact on both FDI margins. Bilateral investment treaties play a significant role only in determining the extensive margin. Results on FDI stocks and FDI flows can lead to different conclusions; thus, research should consult both types of data series to find which variables have robust effects. Furthermore, breaking down the sample by country development levels reveals that FDI from less‐developed countries (LDCs) is not affected by many common variables, and thus, there is a need to develop more theories and empirical work to investigate the FDI from LDCs in particular.     

Identifying Laffer Bounds: A Sufficient‐Statistics Approach with an Application to Germany

We derive a simple sufficient‐statistics test for whether a nonlinear tax‐transfer system is second‐best Pareto efficient. If it is not, then it is beyond the top of the Laffer curve and there exists a tax cut that is self‐financing. The test depends on the income distribution, extensive and intensive labor supply elasticities, and income effect parameters. A tax‐transfer system is likely to be inefficient if marginal tax rates are quickly falling in income. We apply this test to the German tax‐transfer system, and we find that the structure of effective marginal tax rates is likely to be inefficient in the region where transfers are phased out.     

Optimal Income Taxation and Job Choice

In this paper, we study optimal income taxation when different job types exist for workers of different skills. Each job type has some feasible range of incomes from which workers choose by varying labor supply. Workers are more productive than others in the jobs that suit them best. The model combines features of the classic optimal tax literature with labor variability along the intensive margin, with the extensive‐margin approach where workers make discrete job choices and/or participation decisions. We find that first‐best maximin utility can be achieved in the second‐best, and marginal tax rates below the top can be negative or zero.